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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest shock.

Yet the latest field is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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