A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
