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Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another independent nation and seize its president – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.